physics.soc-ph

arXiv:2501.00160v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning involves agents that learn together in a shared environment, leading to emergent dynamics sensitive to initial conditions and parameter variations. A Dynamical Systems approach, which studies the evolution of multi-component systems over time, has uncovered some of the underlying dynamics by constructing deterministic approximation models of stochastic algorithms. In this work, we demonstrate that even in the simplest case of independent Q-learning with a Boltzmann exploration policy, significant discrepancies arise between the actual algorithm and previous approximations. We elaborate why these models actually approximate interesting variants rather than the original incremental algorithm. To explain the discrepancies, we introduce a new discrete-time approximation model that explicitly accounts for agents' update frequencies within the learning process and show that its dynamics fundamentally differ from the simplified dynamics of prior models. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach by applying it to the question of spontaneous cooperation in social dilemmas, specifically the Prisoner's Dilemma as the simplest case study. We identify conditions under which the learning behaviour appears as long-term stable cooperation from an external perspective. However, our model shows that this behaviour is merely a metastable transient phase and not a true equilibrium, making it exploitable. We further exemplify how specific parameter settings can significantly exacerbate the moving target problem in independent learning. Through a systematic analysis of our model, we show that increasing the discount factor induces oscillations, preventing convergence to a joint policy. These oscillations arise from a supercritical Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, which transforms the unique stable fixed point into an unstable focus surrounded by a stable limit cycle.

arXiv:2501.00036v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Over the past few decades, crime and delinquency rates have increased drastically in many countries; nevertheless, it is important to note that crime trends can differ significantly by geographic region. This study's primary goal was to use geographic technology to map and analyze Dessie City's crime patterns. To investigate the geographic clustering of crime, the researchers used semivariogram modeling and spatial autocorrelation analysis with Moran'sI. The neighborhoods of Hote, Arada, and Segno in Dessie's central city were found to be crime-prone "hot spot" locations, as evidenced by statistically significant high Z-scores ranging from 0.037 to 4.608. On the other hand, low negative Z-scores ranging from -3.231 to -0.116 indicated "cold spot" concentrations of crime in the city's north-central sub-cities of Menafesha and Bounbouwha. With an index of 0.027492 and a Z-score of 3.297616 (p<0.01), the analysis overall showed a substantial positive spatial autocorrelation, suggesting a clustered pattern of crime in Dessie. The majority of crimes showed a north-south directionality, except for murder, which trended from northeast to southwest. The mean center of all crime types was found in the central Hote area. To address the complicated problem of rising crime rates in Dessie and other developing metropolitan areas, more focused and efficient enforcement techniques, and resource deployment can be informed through the knowledge acquired from the geospatial analysis.

arXiv:2406.09169v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Real-world networks are sparse. As we show in this article, even when a large number of interactions is observed, most node pairs remain disconnected. We demonstrate that classical multi-edge network models, such as the $G(N,p)$, configuration models, and stochastic block models, fail to accurately capture this phenomenon. To mitigate this issue, zero-inflation must be integrated into these traditional models. Through zero-inflation, we incorporate a mechanism that accounts for the excess number of zeroes (disconnected pairs) observed in empirical data. By performing an analysis on all the datasets from the Sociopatterns repository, we illustrate how zero-inflated models more accurately reflect the sparsity and heavy-tailed edge count distributions observed in empirical data. Our findings underscore that failing to account for these ubiquitous properties in real-world networks inadvertently leads to biased models that do not accurately represent complex systems and their dynamics.

arXiv:2412.18145v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The social characteristics of players in a social network are closely associated with their network positions and relational importance. Identifying those influential players in a network is of great importance as it helps to understand how ties are formed, how information is propagated, and, in turn, can guide the dissemination of new information. Motivated by a Sina Weibo social network analysis of the 2021 Henan Floods, where response variables for each Sina Weibo user are available, we propose a new notion of supervised centrality that emphasizes the task-specific nature of a player's centrality. To estimate the supervised centrality and identify important players, we develop a novel sparse network influence regression by introducing individual heterogeneity for each user. To overcome the computational difficulties in fitting the model for large social networks, we further develop a forward-addition algorithm and show that it can consistently identify a superset of the influential Sina Weibo users. We apply our method to analyze three responses in the Henan Floods data: the number of comments, reposts, and likes, and obtain meaningful results. A further simulation study corroborates the developed method.

arXiv:2412.17908v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: With the rapid development of generative artificial intelligence, particularly large language models, a number of sub-fields of deep learning have made significant progress and are now very useful in everyday applications. For example, well-known financial institutions simulate a wide range of scenarios for various models created by their research teams using reinforcement learning, both before production and after regular operations. In this work, we propose a backdoor attack that focuses solely on data poisoning. This particular backdoor attack is classified as an attack without prior consideration or trigger, and we name it FinanceLLMsBackRL. Our aim is to examine the potential effects of large language models that use reinforcement learning systems for text production or speech recognition, finance, physics, or the ecosystem of contemporary artificial intelligence models.

arXiv:2412.18549v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The collection of updated data on social contact patterns following the COVID-19 pandemic disruptions is crucial for future epidemiological assessments and evaluating non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) based on physical distancing. We conducted two waves of an online survey in March 2022 and March 2023 in Italy, gathering data from a representative population sample on direct (verbal/physical interactions) and indirect (prolonged co-location in indoor spaces) contacts. Using a generalized linear mixed model, we examined determinants of individuals' total social contacts and evaluated the potential impact of work-from-home and distance learning on the transmissibility of respiratory pathogens. In-person attendance at work or school emerged as a primary driver of social contacts. Adults attending in person reported a mean of 1.69 (95% CI: 1.56-1.84) times the contacts of those staying home; among children and adolescents, this ratio increased to 2.38 (95% CI: 1.98-2.87). We estimated that suspending all non-essential work alone would marginally reduce transmissibility. However, combining distance learning for all education levels with work-from-home policies could decrease transmissibility by up to 23.7% (95% CI: 18.2%-29.0%). Extending these measures to early childcare services would yield only minimal additional benefits. These results provide useful data for modelling the transmission of respiratory pathogens in Italy after the end of the COVID-19 emergency. They also provide insights into the potential epidemiological effectiveness of social distancing interventions targeting work and school attendance, supporting considerations on the balance between the expected benefits and their heavy societal costs.

arXiv:2304.13796v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: It has been proposed that information sharing, which is a ubiquitous and consequential behavior, plays a critical role in cultivating and maintaining a sense of shared reality. Across three studies, we tested this theory by investigating whether or not people are especially likely to share information that they believe will be interpreted similarly by others in their social circles. Using neuroimaging while members of the same community viewed brief film clips, we found that more similar neural responding of participants was associated with a greater likelihood to share content. We then tested this relationship using two behavioral studies and found (1) that people were particularly likely to share content that they believed others in their social circles would interpret similarly and (2) that perceived similarity with others leads to increased sharing likelihood. In concert, our findings support the idea that people are driven to share information to create and reinforce shared understanding, which is critical to social connection.

arXiv:2412.16523v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This work introduces a novel graph neural networks (GNNs)-based method to predict stream water temperature and reduce model bias across locations of different income and education levels. Traditional physics-based models often have limited accuracy because they are necessarily approximations of reality. Recently, there has been an increasing interest of using GNNs in modeling complex water dynamics in stream networks. Despite their promise in improving the accuracy, GNNs can bring additional model bias through the aggregation process, where node features are updated by aggregating neighboring nodes. The bias can be especially pronounced when nodes with similar sensitive attributes are frequently connected. We introduce a new method that leverages physical knowledge to represent the node influence in GNNs, and then utilizes physics-based influence to refine the selection and weights over the neighbors. The objective is to facilitate equitable treatment over different sensitive groups in the graph aggregation, which helps reduce spatial bias over locations, especially for those in underprivileged groups. The results on the Delaware River Basin demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in preserving equitable performance across locations in different sensitive groups.

arXiv:2412.17472v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Understanding the collective dynamics behind the success of ideas, products, behaviors, and social actors is critical for decision-making across diverse contexts, including hiring, funding, career choices, and the design of interventions for social change. Methodological advances and the increasing availability of big data now allow for a broader and deeper understanding of the key facets of success. Recent studies unveil regularities beneath the collective dynamics of success, pinpoint underlying mechanisms, and even enable predictions of success across diverse domains, including science, technology, business, and the arts. However, this research also uncovers troubling biases that challenge meritocratic views of success. This review synthesizes the growing, cross-disciplinary literature on the collective dynamics behind success and calls for further research on cultural influences, the origins of inequalities, the role of algorithms in perpetuating them, and experimental methods to further probe causal mechanisms behind success. Ultimately, these efforts may help to better align success with desired societal values.

arXiv:2404.14192v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Here we consider the problem of all the possible orders of a linguistic structure formed by $n$ elements, for instance, subject, direct object and verb ($n=3$) or subject, direct object, indirect object and verb ($n=4$). We investigate if the frequency of the $n!$ possible orders is constrained by two principles. First, entropy minimization, a principle that has been suggested to shape natural communication systems at distinct levels of organization. Second, swap distance minimization, namely a preference for word orders that require fewer swaps of adjacent elements to be produced from a source order. Here we present average swap distance, a novel score for research on swap distance minimization, and investigate the theoretical distribution of that score for any $n$: its minimum and maximum values and its expected value in die rolling experiments or when the word order frequencies are shuffled. We investigate whether entropy and average swap distance are significantly small in distinct linguistic structures with $n=3$ or $n=4$ in agreement with the corresponding minimization principles. We find strong evidence of entropy minimization and swap distance minimization with respect to a die rolling experiment. The evidence of these two forces with respect to a Polya urn process is strong for $n=4$ but weaker for $n=3$. We still find evidence of swap distance minimization when word order frequencies are shuffled, indicating that swap distance minimization effects are beyond pressure to minimize word order entropy.

arXiv:2407.17703v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Human mobility is intricately influenced by urban contexts spatially and temporally, constituting essential domain knowledge in understanding traffic systems. While existing traffic forecasting models primarily rely on raw traffic data and advanced deep learning techniques, incorporating contextual information remains underexplored due to insufficient integration frameworks and the complexity of urban contexts. This study proposes a novel context-aware knowledge graph (CKG) framework to enhance traffic speed forecasting by effectively modeling spatial and temporal contexts. Employing a relation-dependent integration strategy, the framework generates context-aware representations from the spatial and temporal units of CKG to capture spatio-temporal dependencies of urban contexts. A CKG-GNN model, combining the CKG, dual-view multi-head self-attention (MHSA), and graph neural network (GNN), is then designed to predict traffic speed utilizing these context-aware representations. Our experiments demonstrate that CKG's configuration significantly influences embedding performance, with ComplEx and KG2E emerging as optimal for embedding spatial and temporal units, respectively. The CKG-GNN model establishes a benchmark for 10-120 min predictions, achieving average MAE, MAPE, and RMSE of $3.46\pm0.01$, $14.76\pm0.09\%$, and $5.08\pm0.01$, respectively. Compared to the baseline DCRNN model, integrating the spatial unit improves the MAE by 0.04 and the temporal unit by 0.13, while integrating both units further reduces it by 0.18. The dual-view MHSA analysis reveals the crucial role of relation-dependent features from the context-based view and the model's ability to prioritize recent time slots in prediction from the sequence-based view. Overall, this study underscores the importance of merging context-aware knowledge graphs with graph neural networks to improve traffic forecasting.

arXiv:2412.16249v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Behavioral experiments on the ultimatum game (UG) reveal that we humans prefer fair acts, which contradicts the prediction made in orthodox Economics. Existing explanations, however, are mostly attributed to exogenous factors within the imitation learning framework. Here, we adopt the reinforcement learning paradigm, where individuals make their moves aiming to maximize their accumulated rewards. Specifically, we apply Q-learning to UG, where each player is assigned two Q-tables to guide decisions for the roles of proposer and responder. In a two-player scenario, fairness emerges prominently when both experiences and future rewards are appreciated. In particular, the probability of successful deals increases with higher offers, which aligns with observations in behavioral experiments. Our mechanism analysis reveals that the system undergoes two phases, eventually stabilizing into fair or rational strategies. These results are robust when the rotating role assignment is replaced by a random or fixed manner, or the scenario is extended to a latticed population. Our findings thus conclude that the endogenous factor is sufficient to explain the emergence of fairness, exogenous factors are not needed.

arXiv:2412.17351v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reputation and punishment are significant guidelines for regulating individual behavior in human society, and those with a good reputation are more likely to be imitated by others. In addition, society imposes varying degrees of punishment for behaviors that harm the interests of groups with different reputations. However, conventional pairwise interaction rules and the punishment mechanism overlook this aspect. Building on this observation, this paper enhances a spatial public goods game in two key ways: 1) We set a reputation threshold and use punishment to regulate the defection behavior of players in low-reputation groups while allowing defection behavior in high-reputation game groups. 2) Differently from pairwise interaction rules, we combine reputation and payoff as the fitness of individuals to ensure that players with both high payoff and reputation have a higher chance of being imitated. Through simulations, we find that a higher reputation threshold, combined with a stringent punishment environment, can substantially enhance the level of cooperation within the population. This mechanism provides deeper insight into the widespread phenomenon of cooperation that emerges among individuals.

arXiv:2404.00866v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We have developed a nonlinear method of time series analysis that allows us to obtain multiple nonlinear trends without harmonics from a given set of numerical data. We propose to apply the method to recognize the ongoing status of COVID-19 infection with an analytical equation for nonlinear trends. We found that there is only a single nonlinear trend, and this result justifies the use of a week-based infection growth rate. In addition, the fit with the obtained analytical equation for the nonlinear trend holds for a duration of more than three months for the Delta variant infection time series. The fitting also visualizes the transition to the Omicron variant.

arXiv:2404.02216v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: What happens when an infinite number of players play a quantum game? In this tutorial, we will answer this question by looking at the emergence of cooperation, in the presence of noise, in a one-shot quantum Prisoner's dilemma (QuPD). We will use the numerical Agent-based model (ABM), and compare it with the analytical Nash equilibrium mapping (NEM) technique. To measure cooperation, we consider five indicators, i.e., game magnetization, entanglement susceptibility, correlation, player's payoff average and payoff capacity, respectively. In quantum social dilemmas, entanglement plays a non-trivial role in determining the behaviour of the quantum players (or, \textit{qubits}) in the thermodynamic limit, and for QuPD, we consider the existence of bipartite entanglement between neighbouring quantum players. For the five indicators in question, we observe \textit{first}-order phase transitions at two entanglement values, and these phase transition points depend on the payoffs associated with the QuPD game. We numerically analyze and study the properties of both the \textit{Quantum} and the \textit{Defect} phases of the QuPD via the five indicators. The results of this tutorial demonstrate that both ABM and NEM, in conjunction with the chosen five indicators, provide insightful information on cooperative behaviour in an infinite-player one-shot quantum Prisoner's dilemma.

arXiv:2401.17846v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Misleading newsletters can shape individuals' perceptions, and pose a threat to societies; as we witnessed by lowering the severity of follow-up stay-at-home orders and burdening a significant challenge to the fight against COVID-19. In this research, we study (mis)information spreading, reanalyzing behavioral data on online sharing, and analyzing decision-making mechanisms using the Drift Diffusion Model (DDM). We find that subjects display an increased instinctive inclination towards sharing misleading news, but rational thinking significantly curbs this reaction, especially for more cautious and older individuals. On top of network structures with similar characteristics as X, Mastodon, and Facebook, we use an agent-based model to expand this individual knowledge to a large scale where individuals are exposed to (mis)information through friends and share (or not) content with probabilities driven by DDM. We found that the natural shape of these social online networks provides a fertile ground for any news to rapidly become viral. Yet we have found that, for the case of X, limiting the number of followers of the most connected users proves to be an appropriate and feasible containment strategy.

arXiv:2412.15865v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Understanding how transportation networks work is important for improving connectivity, efficiency, and safety. In Brazil, where road transport is a significant portion of freight and passenger movement, network science can provide valuable insights into the structural properties of the infrastructure, thus helping decision makers responsible for proposing improvements to the system. This paper models the federal road network as weighted networks, with the intent to unveil its topological characteristics and identify key locations (cities) that play important roles for the country through 75,000 kilometres of roads. We start with a simple network to examine basic connectivity and topology, where weights are the distance of the road segment. We then incorporate other weights representing number of incidents, population, and number of cities in-between each segment. We then focus on community detection as a way to identify clusters of cities that form cohesive groups within a network. Our findings aim to bring clarity to the overall structure of federal roads in Brazil, thus providing actionable insights for improving infrastructure planning and prioritising resources to enhance network resilience.