stat.OT

7 posts

arXiv:2501.11813v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent work [ 14 ] has introduced a method for prior elicitation that utilizes records of expert decisions to infer a prior distribution. While this method provides a promising approach to eliciting expert uncertainty, it has only been demonstrated using tabular data, which may not entirely represent the information used by experts to make decisions. In this paper, we demonstrate how analysts can adopt a deep learning approach to utilize the method proposed in [14 ] with the actual information experts use. We provide an overview of deep learning models that can effectively model expert decision-making to elicit distributions that capture expert uncertainty and present an example examining the risk of colon cancer to show in detail how these models can be used.

Julia R. Falconer, Eibe Frank, Devon L. L. Polaschek, Chaitanya Joshi1/22/2025

arXiv:2501.10974v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A finite-horizon variant of the quickest change detection problem is investigated, which is motivated by a change detection problem that arises in piecewise stationary bandits. The goal is to minimize the \emph{latency}, which is smallest threshold such that the probability that the detection delay exceeds the threshold is below a desired low level, while controlling the false alarm probability to a desired low level. When the pre- and post-change distributions are unknown, two tests are proposed as candidate solutions. These tests are shown to attain order optimality in terms of the horizon. Furthermore, the growth in their latencies with respect to the false alarm probability and late detection probability satisfies a property that is desirable in regret analysis for piecewise stationary bandits. Numerical results are provided to validate the theoretical performance results.

Yu-Han Huang, Venugopal V. Veeravalli1/22/2025

arXiv:2501.10482v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Random fuzzy variables join the modeling of the impreciseness (due to their ``fuzzy part'') and randomness. Statistical samples of such objects are widely used, and their direct, numerically effective generation is therefore necessary. Usually, these samples consist of triangular or trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In this paper, we describe theoretical results and simulation algorithms for another family of fuzzy numbers -- LR fuzzy numbers with interval-valued cores. Starting from a simulation perspective on the piecewise linear LR fuzzy numbers with the interval-valued cores, their limiting behavior is then considered. This leads us to the numerically efficient algorithm for simulating a sample consisting of such fuzzy values.

Maciej Romaniuk, Abbas Parchami, Przemys{\l}aw Grzegorzewski1/22/2025

arXiv:2501.00997v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: These lecture notes are intended to cover some introductory topics in stochastic simulation for scientific computing courses offered by the IT department at Uppsala University, as taught by the author. Basic concepts in probability theory are provided in the Appendix A, which you may review before starting the upcoming sections or refer to as needed throughout the text.

Davoud Mirzaei1/3/2025

arXiv:2412.16402v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data visualization is a core part of statistical practice and is ubiquitous in many fields. Although there are numerous books on data visualization, instructors in statistics and data science may be unsure how to teach data visualization, because it is such a broad discipline. To give guidance on teaching data visualization from a statistical perspective, we make two contributions. First, we conduct a survey of data visualization courses at top colleges and universities in the United States, in order to understand the landscape of data visualization courses. We find that most courses are not taught by statistics and data science departments and do not focus on statistical topics, especially those related to inference. Instead, most courses focus on visual storytelling, aesthetic design, dashboard design, and other topics specialized for other disciplines. Second, we outline three teaching principles for incorporating statistical inference in data visualization courses, and provide several examples that demonstrate how instructors can follow these principles. The dataset from our survey allows others to explore the diversity of data visualization courses, and our teaching principles give guidance to instructors and departments who want to encourage statistical thinking via data visualization. In this way, statistics-related departments can provide a valuable perspective on data visualization that is unique to current course offerings.

Zach Branson, Monica Paz Parra, Ronald Yurko12/24/2024

arXiv:2412.16657v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The purpose of this study is to provide a step-by-step demonstration of item recovery for the Multidimensional Graded Response Model (MGRM) in R. Within this scope, a sample simulation design was constructed where the test lengths were set to 20 and 40, the interdimensional correlations were varied as 0.3 and 0.7, and the sample size was fixed at 2000. Parameter estimates were derived from the generated datasets for the 3-dimensional GRM, and bias and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values were calculated and visualized. In line with the aim of the study, R codes for all these steps were presented along with detailed explanations, enabling researchers to replicate and adapt the procedures for their own analyses. This study is expected to contribute to the literature by serving as a practical guide for implementing item recovery in the MGRM. In addition, the methods presented, including data generation, parameter estimation, and result visualization, are anticipated to benefit researchers even if they are not directly engaged in item recovery.

Yesim Beril Soguksu, Hatice Gurdil, Ayse Bilicioglu Gunes12/24/2024

arXiv:2412.10643v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The debate between scientific realism and anti-realism remains at a stalemate, making reconciliation seem hopeless. Yet, important work remains: exploring a common ground, even if only to uncover deeper points of disagreement and, ideally, to benefit both sides of the debate. I propose such a common ground. Specifically, many anti-realists, such as instrumentalists, have yet to seriously engage with Sober's call to justify their preferred version of Ockham's razor through a positive account. Meanwhile, realists face a similar challenge: providing a non-circular explanation of how their version of Ockham's razor connects to truth. The common ground I propose addresses these challenges for both sides; the key is to leverage the idea that everyone values some truths and to draw on insights from scientific fields that study scientific inference -- namely, statistics and machine learning. This common ground also isolates a distinctively epistemic root of the irreconcilability in the realism debate.

Hanti Lin12/23/2024